Oscar Predictions – December 2022

As someone who sometimes strives to be an awards pundit, I?ve been continuing to keep up with what might make the cut when the Academy Awards announce the films, actors, directors, and crew who will vie for the most prestigious award in their field. In the past week, the so-called ?precursors? towards the Oscars like the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and various Critics groups awards have been dubbing the best of film this past year. A lot of them have overlaps and those are often key in getting a sense of what will win the Oscar.

Based on the award nominations coming from these groups I have reevaluated some of my predictions. I now have Everything Everywhere All at Once as my best picture winner as it’s shown even more strength in these awards than I would have initially expected. It swept the Critic’s Choice nominations with 14 in categories where it wasn?t exactly expected to appear, including 2 best Supporting Actress nominations, Best Costumes, Best Production Design, and Best Makeup and Hair. 

Some other clear contenders have established their strength in getting into Best Picture. To my disappointment, Elvis is one of those, it’s certainly the vision of director Baz Luhrman and Austin Butler playing a pitch-perfect Elvis but I personally think there are much more worthy films. But it seems its box office success and staying power anchored by Austin?s performance is keeping it in the mind of awards voters. It’s showing similar strengths to Bohemian Rhapsody which ended up winning 4 Oscars and the Golden Globe for Best Drama so it’s hard to ignore.

Women Talking has lost some steam as a top contender as the supporting actress contenders seem to be struggling to be a mainstay in critics’ awards and it’s translated to the larger precursors. Jessie Buckley is the only one to have shown up in a lineup of six at the Critics Choice while her co-star Claire Foy failed to show up at either the Golden Globes or Critics Choice. Sarah Polley was also passed over for director at the Golden Globes.

The Banshees of Inisherin has been gaining steam with what seems to be 4 locked acting nominations from their ensemble of Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson, Kerry Condon, and Barry Keoghan. Colin Farrell and Kerry Condon have also risen in the ranks as likely winners in their respective categories. 

Before I had Black Panther: Wakanda Forever but the film has failed to drum up the same overall hype as the first one. It’s clearly an important tribute to Boseman and the character he created but the film seems to lack the urgency of awards recognition the first one had. In its place, Avatar: the Way of Water takes its a place as the must-see blockbuster of the awards circuit. James Cameron has done it again and despite similar critic reception to Black Panther due to lack of narrative innovation, the film visuals are carrying it all the way to Oscar Glory.

Babylon, like Women Talking, has dropped off due to its more mixed critical reception. Diego Calva who has received praise for his performance is somehow not a likely nominee for Best Actor despite Best Actor lacking the performances we usually see. Best Actress has contained much more notable performances including Margot Robbie who seems to be very likely to receive the best actress nomination. Chazelle has done it again in his filmmaking wizardry but the lack of praise for the story and screenplay makes it less of a contender for the top prizes.

There?s been a lot of changes surrounding what seems to be vying for the last spot in Best Picture. Triangle of Sadness despite strength in comedic nominations at the Golden Globes including a surprise nomination for Dolly De Leon seems to be falling behind. Other hopefuls like She Said, The Whale, and GDT?s Pinocchio have lacked any big nominations for Best Picture despite She Said being a mainstay of Adapted Screenplay along with The Whale, which has bolstered consistent nominations for Brendan Fraser. The problem seems to be Fraser is no longer considered the frontrunner with Austin Butler being the consistent audience favorite and Colin Farrel sweeping critics awards. Pinocchio has not got any other nominations for its crafts like production design or visual effects we thought might be there and also hasn?t broken into Best Adapted Screenplay. In its place, The Woman King and Glass Onion have risen as contenders who certainly aren?t guaranteed but won?t be a surprise come Oscar morning.

GG = Golden Globes the * indicates a nomination in the comedy category

CC = Critics Choice

PGA = Producers Guild Awards

IDA = International Documentary Awards

Bold Indicates a Win for the award

Best Picture

Dropped Out

Black Panther Wakanda Forever, All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Director

 Best Actor

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett (Tar) (GG, CC) ?
2. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once (GG*, CC) ? 1
3. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) (GG, CC) New!
4. Margot Robbie (Babylon) (GG*, CC) ?
5. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) (CC) ? 4
6. Viola Davis (The Woman King) (GG, CC) New!
7. Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) (GG) ? 2
8. Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody) New!
9. Ana de Armas (Blonde) (GG) New!
10. Rooney Mara (Women Talking) New!

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere all at Once) (GG, CC) ?
2. Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inirsherin) (GG, CC) ? 2
3. Barry Keoghan (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG, CC) New!
4. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) (CC) ? 1
5. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) (CC) New!
6. Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) ? 4
7. Brad Pitt (Babylon) (GG) ? 4
8. Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) (GG) New!
9. Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) (CC) New!
10. Tom Hanks (Elvis) New!

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG, CC) ? 4
2. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) (GG, CC) New!
3. Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) (CC) New!
4. Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) (CC) ? 1
5. Claire Foy (Women Talking) ? 4
6. Angela Bassett (Black Pather: WF) (GG, CC)
7. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) (CC) New!
8. Carey Mulligan (She Said) (GG) ? 6
9. Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) (GG) New!
10. Hong Chau (The Whale) New!

Dropped Out: Jean Smart (Babylon)

 Best Original Screenplay

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (GG, CC) ?
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (GG,CC) ? 1
3. The Fabelmans (GG, CC) ? 1
4. Tar (GG, CC) ? 1
5. Triangle of Sadness ? New! 
6. Babylon ? ? 2
7. Aftersun (CC) New!
8. The Menu ? New!

 Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Women Talking (GG, CC) ?
2. She Said (CC) ?
3. Glass Onion (CC) ?
4. The Whale (CC) ?
5. Living (CC) New!
6. White Noise ? 1
7. Pinocchio New!
8. Top Gun Maverick New!
9. The Son New!
10. The Good Nurse New!

Best Original Score

1. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz) (GG, CC) ?
2. Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat) (GG, CC) ? 1
3. Women Talking (Hildur G) (GG, CC) New
4. The Fablemans (John Williams) (GG, CC) ? 2
5. The Batman (Michael Giacchino) (CC) New!
6. Banshees of Inisherin (GG) New!
7. Empire of Light (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross) ? 2
8. Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglan) New!
9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Goransson) New!
10. She Said (Nicholas Britell) New! 

Best Original Song – New!

1. Lift me Up (Black Panther: WF) (GG, CC) 
2. Hold my Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) (GG, CC
3. Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing (GG, CC
4. Naatu Naatu (RRR) (GG, CC
5. Ciao Papa (Pinocchio) (GG, CC
6. Nobody like U (Turning Red)
7. New Body Rhumba (White Noise) (CC
8. This is a Life (EEAAO)
9. Applause (Tell it like a Woman)
10. My Mind & Me (Selena Gomez: My mind & Me)

 Best Cinematography 

1. Avatar The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter) (GG, CC) ? 2
2. Babylon (Linus Sangren) (GG, CC) ? 1
3. Top Gun Maverick (Claudio Miranda) (GG, CC) New!
4. The Fablemans (Janusz Kaminski) (GG, CC) ? 2
5. Bardo (Darius Khondji) –
6. The Batman (Grieg Fraiser) New!
7. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins) (CC) ? 3
8. All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend) New!
9. Tar (Florian Hoffmiester) (CC) New!

 Best Film Editing

1. Top Gun Maverick (CC) –
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once (CC) –
3. Avatar the Way of Water (CC) New!
4. Elvis (CC) New!
5. The Fabelmans ? 1 
6. Babylon (CC) ? 3
7. Women Talking ? 2
8. Banshees of Insherin New!
9. Tar New!

Best Production Design

1. Babylon (CC) –
2. Avatar the Way of Water (CC) –
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (CC) ? 1
4. Elvis (CC) New!
5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery ? 2 
6. The Fabelmans (CC) New!
7. All Quiet on the Western Front New!
8. Pinnochio New!
9. White Noise New!
10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (CC) New!

 Best Costume Design

1. Babylon (CC) –
2. Black Panther Wakanda Forever (CC) –
3. The Woman King (CC) –
4. Elvis (CC) ? 1
5. Everything Everywher all at Once (CC) New!
6. Glass Onion (CC) New!
7. Women Talking ? 3
8. Pinocchio – New!
9. The Batman – New!

Best Makeup + Hairstyling

1. The Whale (CC) –
2. The Batman (CC) –
3. Elvis (CC) –
4. Black Panther: WF (CC) New!
5. Babylon (CC) ? 1
6. Everything Everywher all at Once (CC) New!
7. X – New!
8. The Eternal Daughter – New!
9. The Woman King – New!
10. All Quiet on the Western Front – New!

Dropped Out: A Man Called Ove

 Best Sound

1. Top Gun Maverick –
2. Avatar the Way of Water –
3. The Batman –
4. All Quiet on the Western Front ? 1
5. Elvis – New!
6. Nope ? 2
7. Babylon – New!
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once – New!
9. The Northman – New!
10. Black Panther Wakanda Forever – New!

 Visual Effects

1. Avatar the Way of Water (CC) – 
2. The Batman (CC) – 
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (CC) ? 1
4. Top Gun Maverick (CC) New!
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (CC) – 
6. Dr Strange and the Multiverse of Madness  ? 3
7. RRR (CC) New!
8. Nope – New!
9. Pinnochio – New!
10. Thor Love and Thunder – New!

 Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio (GG, CC) –
2. Turning Red (GG, CC) –
3. Marcel the Shell (GG, CC) New!
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (GG, CC) New!
5. Strange World ? 1
6. Wendell and Wild (CC) ? 1
7. The Bad Guys – New!
8. Inu-oh (GG) New!
9. My Father?s Dragon ? 6
10. Lightyear – New!

International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (CC) –
2. Decision to Leave (Korea) (CC) ? 1
3. Close (Belgium) (CC) ? 1
4. Bardo (Mexico) (CC) –
5. Argentina 1985 (Argentina) (CC) – 
6. Saint Omer (France) New!
7. Holy Spider (Denmark) New!
8. EO (Poland) New!
9. Corsage (Austria) New!
10. Plan 75 (Japan) New!

 Documentary Feature

1. All that Breathes (IDA, CC, PGA) New!
2. Navalny (IDA, CC, PGA) –
3. Fire of Love (IDA, CC, PGA) –
4. Descendant (CC, PGA) New!
5. All the Beauty and Bloodshed (IDA) ? 4
6. Good Night Oppy (CC) New!
7. The Territory (PGA) New!
8. Retrograde (PGA) New!
9. Nothing Compares (PGA) New!
10. Moonage Dreamday ? 6

Dropped Out: Black Ice

 SAG Ensemble

1. Women Talking (CC) –
2. The Fabelmans (CC) ? 1
3. Glass Onion (CC) ? 1
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (CC) ? 1
5. Banshees of Inisherin (CC) –
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – New!
7. The Woman King (CC) New!
8. Triangle of Sadness – New!
9. Top Gun Maverick – New!
10. Babylon ? 8