Well, here we are, my last predictions before the Oscar Nominations come out this Tuesday, January 24th.
So much has changed with many major awards bodies nominating their favorite films in different technical, acting and writing categories. I’ve assembled them all here for your insight and some of my predictions go against the amount of nominations that it’s gotten because of a gut feeling I have or how important I consider certain nominations. I hope to briefly explain my reasoning in the major categories so let’s get into the predictions.
BAFTA = British Film TV Academy Awards (* indicates a mention on the BAFTA longlist)
SAG = Screen Actors Guild
GG = Golden Globe Awards (* indicates a nomination in the comedy/musical category)
CC= Critics Choice Awards
PGA = Producer Guild of America Awards
DGA = Director’s Guild of America Awards
Remaining Acronyms are used mostly for American Guild Awards such as Art Direction, Costumes and Makeup & Hair.
I’m still on the Everything Everywhere All at Once bandwagon. In my mind, The Fabelmans has lost a lot of steam. It was snubbed for Best Film at the BAFTA’s and Spielberg wasn’t even on the longlist for Best Director. The BAFTA’s have shown to be a very important precursor towards winning best picture but The Fabelmans only managed to claim a lone Original Screenplay nomination, still an important nomination but not enough to win Best Picture. No other film has made a meteoric rise through January and while Banshees‘ win at the Golden Globes certainly makes it a strong rival to Everything Everywhere all at Once. The overall awards hype and nominations package that EEAAO seems to be looking at makes it my personal frontrunner. On the latter end, only six films seem secure for Best Picture and Avatar, while performing poorly at the BAFTAS, still has a very good chance with its PGA nomination in hand. Women Talking has dropped off a lot as it failed to gain 1 BAFTA nomination including adapted screenplay, a category where its win competitive at the Oscars. The Whale pulling in a PGA nomination is huge, especially when its an awards body that often favours the big-budgeted money makers. All Quiet secured 14 BAFTA nominations, an extraordinary amount that shows it has tons of love across the Atlantic. It then comes down to Babylon and Women Talking for me. Babylon has similar accolades to Women Talking and, even without a screenplay nomination in sight for Babylon, it still is the frontrunner for multiple Oscars, including Best Original Score and Production Design. It is also much more of a Oscars movie for how much it covers about movies, actors and workers in the Hollywood film industry so I had to put Women Talking off my Top 10 as much as that pains me. It was in my top 5 of 2022 and now it looks like it will miss the Oscars Top 10, hopefully they still recognize Sarah Polley in Adapted Screenplay.
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (GG*, CC, BAFTA, PGA, AFI) –
- Banshees of Inisherin (GG*, CC, BAFTA, SAG, PGA, AFI) ↑ 1
- The Fabelmans (GG, CC, BAFTA*, PGA, AFI) ↓ 1
- Top Gun Maverick (GG, CC, BAFTA*, PGA, AFI) –
- Elvis (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, AFI) ↑ 3
- Tar (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, AFI) ↓ 1
- Avatar: The Way of Water (GG, CC, PGA, AFI) New!
- All Quiet on the Western (BAFTA) New!
- The Whale (PGA) ↑ 7
- Babylon (GG*, CC, SAG) ↓ 1
- Women Talking (CC, SAG, AFI) ↓ 5
- Glass Onion: Knives Out Mystery (CC, PGA) –
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PGA) New!
- Triangle of Sadness (GG*, BAFTA*) ↓ 3
- The Woman King (AFI) ↓ 2
- Aftersun (BAFTA*) New!
Dropped Out: She Said, RRR, Pinocchio
I’m honestly a lot more confused in this category than I was before. I’m confident in the top four getting nominated which includes The Daniels, Steven Spielberg, Martin McDonough and Todd Field. (I could see McDonough being snubbed like he was for Three Billboards but it’s not very likely.) The fifth slot has many contenders but none of them are Sarah Polley who was only in a list of ten at the Critics Choice Awards. It looks to be all men this year and, while some of them certainly deserve it with movies like Aftersun and Women Talking, its insane to see them almost completely ignored by major awards bodies. Gina Prince Blythewood has an outside shot for The Woman King but she was likely nominated by their jury. The remaining directors are Joseph Kosinski, James Cameron, Baz Luhrman and Edward Berger. My first instinct is too chose the director with the strongest film in Best Picture which is Kosinski for Top Gun: Maverick. It feels like a directors kind of film with its “they don’t make ’em like this anymore” style of filmmaking and storytelling. However, the directors branch at the Academy loves its international directors and with All Quiet‘s strong performance at the BAFTAS, I feel inclined to predict Edward Berger in my fith slot.
- The Daniels for EEAAO (GG, CC, BAFTA DGA) –
- Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans (GG, CC, DGA) –
- Todd Field for Tar (CC, BAFTA, DGA) ↑ 1
- Martin McDonough for Banshees of Inisherin (GG, CC, BAFTA, DGA) ↑ 2
- Edward Berger for All Quiet (BAFTA) New!
- Joseph Kosinski for Top Gun Maverick (DGA) New!
- James Cameron for Avatar: The Way of the Water (GG, CC) ↓ 4
- Baz Lurhman for Elvis (GG, CC, BAFTA*) –
- Gina Prince Bythewood for The Woman King (BAFTA) ↑ 1
- Sarah Polley for Women Talking (CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 5
Dropped Out: Damien Chazelle (Babylon), S.S Rajamouli (RRR)
Do I believe? Yes, I believe in the power of love, hope and how much Brendan Fraser communicates that in The Whale. One of the things that has held me from backing Fraser was The Whale’s lack of other nominations but now it looks to be quite set for both a Best Supporting Actress and Best Picture nod along with a potential Adapted Screenplay win! That kind of package show that The Whale is sticking with people and how could Fraser not be on the top of that list when it comes to awards. Austin Butler in Elvis is scary and the film has done really well but I think Fraser can take it. It’s an exciting race in this category and, like Best Director, the top four seem very easy (but that fifth slot is tricky). No one has gotten multiple nominations across the awards bodies except for Paul Mescal, but both his lineup had six actors in them and the BAFTAS loved Aftersun more than most. Still, the rest seem too weak, Tom Cruise doesn’t seem like the kind of nominee that the actors branch would support and his lack of nominations supports that. Adam Sandler was the surprise at the SAG awards but that also feels far from an Academy nominated film. Thus, I’ll default Paul Mescal, which is an amazing pick and might be the only nomination for my favourite film of 2022.
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) ↑ 2
- Austin Butler (Elvis) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) ↓ 1
- Colin Farrell (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG*, CC, BAFTA, SAG) ↓ 1
- Bill Nighy (Living) (CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Paul Mescal (Aftersun) (CC, BAFTA) ↑ 2
- Tom Cruise (Top Gun Maverick) (CC, BAFTA*) –
- Adam Sandler (Hustle) (SAG) New!
- Diego Calva (Babylon) (GG*) ↓ 3
- Hugh Jackman (The Son) (GG) ↓ 2
- Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) (GG) ↓ 1
Dropped Out: Adam Driver (White Noise) (GG*)
Andrea Risborough enters the Top 10 purely on press buzz about her being endorsed by several notable Academy actors (and Cate Blanchett even shouted her performance in To Leslie out during her acceptance speech at the Critics Choice Awards). That’s also why I keep Cate at my number 1 slot for Best Actress. At awards show that showered Everything Everywhere All at Once with accolades, Michelle Yeoh still didn’t win and I fear this could keep happening at both the SAGS and, more likely, at the BAFTAS. I think they’ll split those awards but if either wins both, they are winning! I do think that, in the event of a split, Cate has the edge as people single her out as the reason TAR is so captivating while EEAAO has so many elements to cover that Michelle’s career-defining performance might get lost in the shuffle. The final slot is also difficult to discern here. Ana De Armas for Blonde showed a unexpected strength by getting a BAFTA & SAG nomination. Michelle Williams along with The Fabelmans has been declining as she failed to get both a SAG or a BAFTA nomination. This could come from the fact many don’t see her role in The Fabelmans as a lead performance. Despite what people may think of the movie Blonde, Ana De Armas is certainly a lead performance as she’s onscreen for almost all of its 2 hour and 45 minute runtime. My predictions reflect that.
- Cate Blanchett (Tar) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO) (GG*, CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Viola Davis (The Woman King) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) ↑ 3
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till) (CC, BAFTA, SAG) ↑ 1
- Ana de Armas (Blonde) (GG, BAFTA, SAG) ↑ 4
- Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) (GG, CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 3
- Margot Robbie (Babylon) (GG*, CC) ↓ 3
- Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie) (Pure Hype) New!
- Naomi Ackie (I Wanna Dance with Somebody) (BAFTA*) ↓ 1
- Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) (GG) ↓ 3
Dropped Out: Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan is winning. It’s no contest really. The performance, the story and being in a best picture contender make this his to lose and there’s no way he does. I actually feel less conflicted about my Oscar five in this category. Despite the fact that only has three nominations, they have had unanimous support. Eddie Redmayne has risen from the ashes of a Netflix movie that no one seemed to care about and garnered a SAG and BAFTA nomination making him hard to deny. That fifth slot could be anyone but, even with The Fabelmans dropping, Paul Dano with his SAG nomination makes the most sense. Also, The Fabelmans is still a top five contender for picture and is certainly stronger than Babylon, for which Brad Pitt failed to get anything but a Golden Globe nomination.
- Ke Huy Quan (EEAAO) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Brendan Gleeson (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Barry Keoghan (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG, CC, BAFTA, SAG) –
- Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) (GG, BAFTA, SAG) ↑ 4
- Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) (CC, SAG) ↓ 1
- Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) (CC) ↓ 1
- Brad Pitt (Babylon) (GG, BAFTA*) –
- Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) (CC) ↑ 1
- Michael Ward (Empire of Light) (BAFTA) New!
- Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) (BAFTA*) ↓ 4
Dropped Out: Tom Hanks (Elvis)
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett wasn’t even in my top five just half a month ago but now its hard to not have her at number one. Her wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice gave her that front runner status but she has shown up at the SAG and BAFTA while Black Panther: Wakanda Forever failed to show up like its Best Picture predecessor the first Black Panther. Her performance has transcended beyond how strong Wakanda Forever is for Best Picture though the film still managed to get a key PGA nomination. Like Supporting Actor the top three feel secure and while the bottom two could go a number of ways I like my picks both for their chances and the quality of the performances. Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu both got key nominations at the SAG nominations and both of their movies have risen up the ranks. While both Dolly De Leon and Carey Mulligan have gotten two major nominations like Chau and Hsu; Chau got the two most important from BAFTA and SAG and Hsu is in a best picture contender while both She Said and Triangle of Sadness remain on the outskirts.
- Angela Bassett (Black Panther: WF) (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) ↑ 5
- Kerry Condon (Banshees of Inisherin) (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) ↓ 1
- Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) (GG, CC, SAG, BAFTA) ↓ 1
- Hong Chau (The Whale) (SAG, BAFTA) ↑ 6
- Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) (CC, SAG) ↑ 2
- Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) (GG, BAFTA) ↑ 3
- Carey Mulligan (She Said) (GG, BAFTA) ↑ 1
- Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) (CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 5
- Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) (CC) ↓ 5
- Claire Foy (Women Talking) ↓ 6
Best Original Screenplay
The nominees feel very easy to predict as I don’t see Aftersun managing to upset Triangle of Sadness at the Oscars as much as it would deserve to. It all depends on the grudge match between Banshees and EEAAO which is hard to decipher. Banshees seems like a screenplay winner but with Everything Everywhere being so strong in picture while still being a movie that relies heavily on its script it could easily win. I’m going to stay with Everything Everywhere for now as it could prove to be the universally loved film we all know it is. It has yet to lack a major nomination it was expected to get and could even overperform in below the line categories on its way to a potential Best Picture win.
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (GG, CC, BAFTA) –
- The Banshees of Inisherin (GG,CC, BAFTA) –
- The Fabelmans (GG, CC, BAFTA) –
- Tar (GG, CC, BAFTA) –
- Triangle of Sadness (BAFTA) –
- Aftersun (CC, BAFTA*) ↑ 1
- The Menu (BAFTA*) ↑ 1
- Babylon – ↓ 2
Best Adapted Screenplay
This category just kind of breaks my heart. Women Talking seemed so poised to win this category almost unanimously. Now, it comes out of pre-Oscar season with a Critics Choice win (which is nice) but also a lack of Best Picture momentum and a missed screenplay nomination at the BAFTAS to go along with its zero nominations at the BAFTAS. The only sign of hope in January has been its SAG ensemble nomination which it deserves to win. How could you ignore that powerful ensemble? Still, all that said, The Whale has picked up a lot of steam and we’ll see how the Writers Guild votes but Samuel D. Hunter’s script would also deserve it.
- The Whale (CC, BAFTA) ↑ 3
- Women Talking (GG, CC, BAFTA*, USC) ↓ 1
- Living (CC, BAFTA, USC) ↑ 2
- She Said (CC, BAFTA, USC) ↓ 2
- Glass Onion (CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 2
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA) New!
- Pinocchio (BAFTA*, USC) –
- Top Gun Maverick (BAFTA*, USC) –
Below the Line
There’s a lot more categories so I’ll keep this short. Babylon is still the strong frontrunner for Best Original Score as composer Justin Hurwitz picked up his fourth golden globe win and a critic choice win. I love to see Naatu Naatu being pushed to the front for Best Original Song. It deserves it. Cinematography is a wild category with Roger Deakins somehow my runner up behind Top Gun, which I wouldn’t have thought was possible after TIFF. Animated Feature has four secure nominations and one wild card which will be very hard to predict and All Quiet has probably established clear front-runner status in wake of its Best Picture momentum. Lets see if it can do as much damage at the Oscars as it did at the BAFTAs by raking in 14 nominations. My big documentary snub, which tends to happen every year, is Fire of Love. Archive footage and narration, I think, is something that the branch isn’t in love with so we’ll see if that translates. Still praying for Women Talking to win SAG ensemble.
Best Original Score
- Babylon (Justin Hurwitz) (GG, CC, BAFTA) –
- Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat) (GG, CC, SCL, BAFTA) –
- Women Talking (Hildur G) (GG, CC, BAFTA*) –
- Banshees of Inisherin (GG, SCL, BAFTA) ↑ 2
- The Fablemans (John Williams) (GG, CC) ↓ 1
- All Quiet on Western Front (BAFTA) New!
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (BAFTA) New!
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (BAFTA*) New!
- Don’t Worry Darling (SCL) New!
- Nope – New!
Dropped Out: The Batman (CC, SCL, BAFTA*), Empire of Light, She Said, Black Panther: WF, Avatar: TWOW
Best Original Song
- Naatu Naatu (RRR) (GG, CC, SCL) ↑ 3
- Lift me Up (Black Panther: WF) (GG, CC, SCL) ↓ 1
- Hold my Hand (Top Gun: Maverick) (GG, CC, SCL) ↓ 1
- Ciao Papa (Pinocchio) (GG, CC, SCL) ↑ 1
- Carolina (Where the Crawdads Sing (GG, CC, SCL) ↓ 2
- Applause (Tell it like a Woman) ↑ 3
- New Body Rhumba (White Noise) (CC) –
- This is a Life (EEAAO) –
- My Mind & Me (Selena Gomez: My mind & Me) ↑ 1
Dropped Out: Nobody Like U (Turning Red)
- Top Gun Maverick (Claudio Miranda) (CC, BAFTA, ASC) ↑ 2
- Empire of Light (Roger Deakins) (CC, BAFTA, ASC) ↑ 3
- The Batman (Grieg Fraiser) (ASC, BAFTA) ↑ 3
- Elvis (Mandy Walker) (ASC, BAFTA) New!
- All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend) (BAFTA) ↑ 3
- Bardo (Darius Khondji) (ASC) ↓ 1
- Babylon (Linus Sangren) (CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 5
- Avatar The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter) (CC) ↓ 7
- The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski) (CC) ↓ 5
- Tar (Florian Hoffmiester) (CC, BAFTA*) New!
Best Film Editing
- Top Gun Maverick (CC, BAFTA) –
- Everything Everywhere All At Once (CC, BAFTA) –
- Elvis (CC, BAFTA) ↑ 1
- Banshees of Insherin (BAFTA) ↑ 4
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA) New!
- Babylon (CC) –
- The Fabelmans ↓ 2
- Avatar the Way of Water (CC) ↓ 5
- Tar –
- Triangle of Sadness (BAFTA*) New!
Best Production Design
- Babylon (CC, BAFTA, ADG) –
- Avatar the Way of Water (CC, BAFTA*, ADG) –
- Elvis (CC, BAFTA, ADG) ↑ 1
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (CC, ADG) ↓ 1
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA, ADG) ↑ 2
- The Fabelmans (CC, BAFTA*, ADG) –
- Pinocchio (BAFTA, ADG*) ↑ 1
- The Batman (ADG*, BAFTA) New!
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (CC, BAFTA*, ADG) ↑ 1
- Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (ADG*) ↓ 5
Best Costume Design
- Black Panther Wakanda Forever (CC, CDG, BAFTA*) ↑ 1
- Babylon (CC, CDG, BAFTA) ↓ 1
- Elvis (CC, CDG, BAFTA) ↑ 1
- Mrs Harris Goes to Paris (CDG, BAFTA) New!
- Glass Onion (CC, CDG, BAFTA*) ↑ 1
- The Woman King (CC, CDG) ↓ 3
- Everything Everywhere all at Once (CC, CDG) ↓ 2
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA) New!
- Amsterdam (BAFTA) New!
- Women Talking (CDG) ↓ 3
Best Makeup + Hairstyling
- Elvis (CC, BAFTA, MUHS) ↑ 2
- The Whale (CC, BAFTA, MUHS*) ↓ 1
- The Batman (CC, BAFTA, MUHS) ↓ 1
- Black Panther: WF (CC, BAFTA*, MUHS) –
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA) ↑ 5
- Babylon (CC, BAFTA*, MUHS) ↓ 1
- Blonde (BAFTA*, MUHS) New!
- Amsterdam (BAFTA*, MUHS) New!
- Top Gun Maverick (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) –
- Avatar the Way of Water (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) –
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE*) ↑ 1
- Elvis (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE*) – ↑ 1
- The Batman (BAFTA*, CAS, MPSE) ↓ 2
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (BAFTA*, MPSE) ↑ 2
- Babylon (BAFTA*) –
- Pinocchio (BAFTA*) New!
Best Visual Effects
- Avatar the Way of Water (CC, BAFTA,VES) –
- Top Gun Maverick (CC, BAFTA, VES) ↑ 2
- The Batman (CC, BAFTA, VES) ↓ 1
- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (CC, BAFTA*) ↓ 1
- All Quiet on the Western Front (BAFTA) New!
- Jurassic World: Dominion (BAFTA*,VES) New!
- Fantastic Beasts: Secrets of Dumbledore (BAFTA*, VES) New!
- Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness (BAFTA*) ↓ 2
Best Animated Feature
- GDT’s Pinocchio (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, ANNIE) –
- Turning Red (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, ANNIE) –
- Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, ANNIE*) –
- Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (GG, CC, BAFTA, PGA, ANNIE) –
- Wendell and Wild (CC, ANNIE) ↑ 1
- Minions: The Rise of Gru (BAFTA*, PGA) New!
- The Sea Beast (ANNIE) New!
- Lightyear (BAFTA*) ↑ 2
- The Bad Guys (BAFTA*) ↓ 2
- Inu-oh (GG, ANNIE*) ↓ 2
- My Father’s Dragon (ANNIE*) ↓ 2
Best International Feature
- All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) (CC, GG, BAFTA) –
- Argentina 1985 (Argentina) (CC, GG, BAFTA) ↑ 3
- Decision to Leave (Korea) (CC, GG, BAFTA) ↓ 1
- Close (Belgium) (CC, GG) ↓ 1
- The Quiet Girl (BAFTA) (Ireland) New!
- Bardo (Mexico) (CC) ↓ 2
- Corsage (Austria) (BAFTA) ↑ 2
- Holy Spider (Denmark) ↓ 1
- EO (Poland) ↓ 1
- Saint Omer (France) ↓ 4
Best Documentary Feature
- All the Beauty and Bloodshed (IDA, BAFTA, DGA) ↑ 4
- All that Breathes (IDA, CC, PGA, BAFTA, DGA) ↓ 1
- Navalny (IDA, CC, PGA, BAFTA, DGA) ↓ 1
- Moonage Daydream (BAFTA) ↑ 6
- Descendant (CC, PGA) ↓ 1
- Fire of Love (IDA, CC, PGA, BAFTA, DGA) ↓ 3
- Retrograde (PGA, DGA) ↑ 1
- The Territory (PGA) ↓ 1
- Everything Everywhere All at Once (CC) ↑ 3
- The Fabelmans (CC) –
- Women Talking (CC) ↓ 2
- Banshees of Inisherin (CC) ↑ 1
- Babylon ↑ 5